05Programme pillar

Data, Intelligence & Strategic Foresight

Open-source data, risk mapping and scenario work, used to anticipate what the corridor does next.

OSINT, scenarios and early warning

01The question

What this pillar asks

This pillar supplies the evidence the other four run on. Open-source collection, risk mapping and scenario planning are used to establish what is happening now and what is likely to follow. It also produces the early-warning alerts, which are issued when a situation changes.

Focus areas

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) collection and analysis
Strategic foresight and scenario planning for security, economic and political developments
Risk mapping and predictive analytics
Data-driven decision support for stakeholders

Outputs

Foresight reports and scenario simulations
Strategic dashboards for decision-makers
Risk alerts and monitoring briefs

Commission work in this pillar

Research in this area can be commissioned as a policy brief, a strategic report or a closed-door briefing.

Talk to us

02Publications

From this programme

Early-Warning AlertEWA-2026-011 · June 2026Data, Intelligence & Strategic ForesightRising Tanker Diversions Around the StraitA time-critical signal on shifting traffic patterns at Bab el-Mandeb and what they imply for the weeks ahead.Alert

Next pillar

Programme 01Security & Strategic AffairsRegional and maritime security: what threatens the corridor, who is militarily present in it, and what states can do about both.Read pillar 01